Despite this bad news, only a quarter said volumes were down (some compared to 2019 volumes, some to 2021), and most said they were flat. Interestingly, two had growth years, trajectories they expect to continue. Was there a pattern? Not really. Both the breweries that were in growth mode looked pretty typical: one, a middle-sized brewery, was package-dominant, but with several healthy taproom/pubs. The other was similar, except that it’s a small-to middle-sized brewery, and draft-forward, selling in its three retail outlets. The breweries that were down were all over the map: a small brewpub, a small- to middle-sized brewery with balanced draft/package mix, and a middle-sized brewery tilted to package sales.
None of the breweries that responded were in a dire state. Keep in mind, this is far from a scientific survey, and the people who responded to me were self-selected. If one of the breweries I reached out to had been in big trouble, I wouldn’t have expected a reply. Indeed, after detailing their challenges, many included a note of optimism. “Given the state of the industry, flat growth feels okay,” one wrote, adding they felt confident about weathering the current headwinds.
Finally, another big comment many mentioned was the shift happening with packaged sales. Distributors are consolidating their portfolio and scaling back the range of beers they order. Big breweries haven’t raised prices much, and one respondent noted this tethered craft brewers from raising their prices very much. Part of the squeeze is other products (seltzers, canned cocktails, etc), part of it is proliferating breweries, and part is a focus on larger breweries and clear strong-selling products. Some version of this challenge is something almost every brewery mentioned.
The Draft Crisis
On a Saturday evening in mid-December, I visited Ecliptic with friends. We arrived at around 6:30, and the crowd was good, though the pub wasn’t full. Yet by the time Ecliptic shut the doors at 9pm (!), we were one of only two tables left. This experience is apparently not characteristic of everywhere. A middle-sized brewery from the southern US said taproom volumes were headed upward. But in some regions, draft is down. “There are definitely less people in the seats of our [taprooms],” one small brewery told me. Another, from a middle-sized brewery, said, “I remain concerned about the fact that draft/on premise sales have never really bounced back to pre-pandemic levels.” Another middle-sized brewery pegged their draft sales as about 85% pre-pandemic levels. Finally, a brewpub reported that things were coming back, but erratically. They seem to be doing well now, but the fall months were terrible.
